After pounding Israel for the second consecutive night, as missiles hit targets across Israel including Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem, Iran is learned to have indicated that it is considering shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, which would affect ships carrying oil among other merchandise. There is credible information that the United States could decide to , which experts have already warned would lead to a full-scale regional war, with some saying that it could actually trigger World War III.
Here are five pointers to decode the escalating war between Iran and Israel:
1. Experts point out that Israel’s unprovoked on Iranian nuclear installations and assassination of its senior commanders on 12-13 June had the tacit backing of the US, as indicated by the reactions of US President Donald Trump. Iran was caught napping partly because it did not anticipate the strike before Sunday, 15 June when Iran-US talks were scheduled at Muscat, Oman. The talks have fallen through because of the Israeli strike.
2. Israel, backed by the US, wanted to catch Tehran by surprise and deal a blow to Iran’s capacity to retaliate. By hitting ports, oil installations, military bases and nuclear installations, Israel hoped to cripple Iran’s capacity to hit back. Indeed, Israeli officials gloated after Friday’s strike that Israeli aircraft could fly freely to Tehran, 1,000 km away.
3. Iran’s retaliatory strikes, however, seem to have rattled Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose plane was earlier reported to have landed in Greece, complained that Iran was hitting civilian targets, oblivious to the irony of Israel’s own record in this regard. While Israel had boasted that it planned to pound Iran for at least 14 days and longer, if necessary, even US experts seem to agree that the plan all along was for the US to join the war at an opportune moment.
4. The US, they argued, would justify its involvement if Iran hit any US asset in the region, carried out ‘terrorist attacks’ within the US or hit civilians. While Iran, experts agree, had exercised strategic restraint until Friday, the grim message it has sought to convey is, “remember, we did not start this”.
5. “Israel that started this insane war can drag Americans into a wider regional conflict with the potential for nuclear war… We have 40,000 troops in UAE, Qatar, across the Persian Gulf. They are sitting ducks. Iranian Shahed-136 Drones cost $20,000 each. American Patriot Missiles cost $4 million per interceptor. Do the math. We will run through our inventory of missiles and go broke while Americans come home in boxes. The Middle East is on the brink,” US combat veteran and author Douglas Macgregor posted on Saturday.
Macgregor has sensibly urged the US to call for an emergency UN Security Council meeting, demand that Israel stop the killing of Palestinians in Gaza and withdraw its forces from Gaza and the West Bank, suspend all military aid to Israel until Israel agrees to remove its troops from Gaza and permit humanitarian assistance to reach the people of Gaza, and propose armed forces from non-aligned nations (UN peacekeeping force?) to police Gaza and the West Bank
He also says the United States, Russia, China, India and Brazil together should convene a peace conference to arbitrate the dispute between Israel, Iran and Israel’s neighbours.
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