
The chances of then UK reaching 40C is "rapidly" accelerating as the warms, scientists at the Met Office have warned. UK heatwaves could also become longer and hotter because of the climate crisis, a new study published in the journal has found.
The meteorological experts also warned that far higher temperatures of 45C or more "may be possible" in today's climate, while heatwaves could go on for a month or more.
Lead author Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, said: "The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
"We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in ."
In July 2022, the UK experienced its first recorded temperature above 40C, when Coningsby in Lincolnshire hit 40.3C.
This unprecedented temperature formed part of Europe's warmest summer on record.
There were significant impacts, such as: wildfires, disruptions to transport and power systems and increased mortality.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: "The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England.
"Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat."
Forecasters are expecting temperatures to climb to a peak of 33C on Sunday in the east of England, approaching the highest ever temperature recorded in June - 35.6C in 1976.
The London Fire Brigade has issued a warning over wildfires before the prolonged spell of hot weather and following one of the driest springs on record.
Pam Oparaocha, London Fire Brigade assistant commissioner, said: "For many people, this week will feel like the start of summer with temperatures rising, especially as the sunny weather is expected to continue into the weekend and beyond.
"We've had the driest spring in over a century, and the result is a heightened risk of grass fires, while the dry weather also means that fires can spread more easily.
"If you're out in the park or at an open space, please don't take a disposable BBQ with you, make sure that smoking materials are discarded of properly and either dispose of your rubbish in the appropriate bins or take it home with you if none are available. If you're having a BBQ at home, avoid doing so on a balcony and ensure your BBQ is away from flammable materials like fences and sheds. You should also avoid having your BBQ on any decking you may have in your garden."
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