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Ahead of the Paris Airshow, Boeing released its 20-year commercial aircraft forecast, slightly reducing expectations for new jet deliveries and key growth metrics.

The American aerospace major now estimates a need for 43,600 new aircraft through 2044, a marginal reduction from the 43,975 units projected in last year’s forecast for the period through 2043, reported Reuters.

The delivery estimate comprises nearly 33,300 single-aisle planes—including the 737 MAX, 7,800 widebody jets, 955 purpose-built freighters, and 1,545 regional aircraft. Single-aisle jets, such as Boeing’s 737 MAX and Airbus’s A320neo series, are projected to make up about 80 per cent of total deliveries.

While aircraft demand remains largely unchanged, Boeing has lowered expectations for several economic and industry indicators. Passenger traffic growth is now forecast at 4.2 per cent, down from 4.7 per cent a year ago. Similarly, global economic growth expectations have been revised from 2.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent. Cargo traffic growth is now seen at 3.7 per cent, down from 4.1 per cent, and fleet growth was slightly reduced to 3.1 per cent.

Regional Trends and Capacity Gaps

The forecast suggests that around 51 per cent of new aircraft demand will be driven by expansion, with the remaining 49 per cent attributed to the replacement of older planes. Much of this growth is expected from Asia, particularly China and South/Southeast Asia, which are projected to account for half of the required new capacity. Meanwhile, North America and Eurasia are expected to dominate the replacement-driven segment of demand.

Despite global trade tensions, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst noted that long-term air cargo demand remains resilient. “I think we need to point back to the perspective that the last 20, 40, 60 years have given us in terms of the value of air cargo, and the fact that it's roughly a 4 per cent growth market through all this time,” he said.

Manufacturing Challenges and Safety Concerns

Hulst also highlighted a supply-demand imbalance in aircraft availability. Although travel demand has recovered post-COVID, aircraft production has not kept pace, creating a deficit of between 1,500 and 2,000 jets. Boeing, like its European competitor Airbus, has faced difficulty ramping up output to pre-pandemic levels.

Recent safety issues have further strained production efforts. The US Federal Aviation Administration limited Boeing’s 737 MAX output to 38 units per month following a mid-air panel blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight earlier this year. Although improvements have been made in manufacturing standards, a new crisis emerged last week after an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner crashed. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg subsequently cancelled his Paris Airshow appearance to help manage the investigation.

In comparison, Airbus has increased its 20-year forecast by 2 per cent, projecting demand for 43,420 jets. The European firm maintains confidence that the sector can weather geopolitical uncertainties and continue to grow.