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Whenever it's time to engage in direct dialogue with India, Pakistan is often seen seeking backing from its allies or hiding behind a veil of threats. Lacking the moral right to negotiate one-on-one, it frequently leans on countries like Turkey or China. Once again, Islamabad has resorted to the same tactic, issuing veiled threats in the name of China after facing a setback in Operation Sindoor and growing fears over India's control of Indus River waters.

Rana Ehsan Afzal, advisor to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, recently warned that if India blocks Indus waters, China could retaliate by doing the same with the Brahmaputra River. He added that such a scenario could spark a global war. Responding firmly, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma countered the claim on Tuesday (June 3, 2025), backing his statement with data and exposing the factual limitations of China's control over Brahmaputra's water flow. Notably, China has made no such declaration.

Can China Really Block Brahmaputra's Flow to India?

According to experts, China cannot completely stop the Brahmaputra's flow into India, as only 20%-30% of the river's total water volume originates in China, while a significant 86% is generated within Indian territory.

How Much of Brahmaputra's Flow Comes from China?

An article published on natstrat.org, co-authored by former Indus Water Commissioner PK Saxena and former Brahmaputra-Barak Commissioner, explains the distribution of water flow in the Brahmaputra River Basin. It reveals that only 20%-30% of the river's flow comes from China's Tibetan region.

Northeast India Powers Brahmaputra

The article clarifies that while the river begins in Tibet and receives some contribution from light rainfall and 4-12 inches of snowfall, India's northeastern states contribute the most. Interestingly, Bhutan, though small in size, contributes 21% of the water, nearly equal to China, even though only 6.7% of the river flows through its territory.

India accounts for 34.2% of the river's geographical area, but contributes a dominant 39% of its water, which rises to 86% during the monsoon. The article highlights that the river's flow is just 14% before it enters India. It swells to 86% once it traverses the rainfall-rich Northeast.

Himanta Biswa Sarma's Strong Rebuttal

Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma took to social media platform X on Tuesday. He explained that the Brahmaputra is not a river India depends on externally — it is a rain-fed Indian river that strengthens significantly after entering Indian territory.

Sarma stated, "China contributes only 30–35% to the Brahmaputra's total discharge, mainly from glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The remaining 65–70% comes from heavy monsoon rains in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya."

He further pointed out that while the river's flow near the India-China border (Tuting) is around 2,000-3,000 cubic metres per second, it surges to 15,000-20,000 cubic metres per second in Assam's plains during the monsoon. This means that the river is highly dependent on Indian rainfall rather than Chinese sources.