
Supermarket shoppers buying avocados are being warned that the fruit is under threat and may be harder to come by in the future due to the impact of . Avocado-growing regions are shrinking due to the impact of , meaning shoppers are facing in the years to come. The is well known for its impact on as it requires a lot of water to grow, which can put pressure on water supplies in areas that are water stressed. The best avocado growing regions include Mexico, Spain, South Africa, Peru and Chile, but volatile in these areas are resulting in a decline in growth. It reportedly takes up to 320 litres of water on average to grow a single avocado in certain, drier areas - four times the amount needed to produce a kilo of oranges and ten times that of tomatoes.
But because avocados need so much water to grow, it makes the fruit particularly vulnerable to climate change, particularly as the world is gradually becoming hotter, drier and more prone to drought. And when the weather turns hotter, this in turn makes growing conditions drier which can significantly slow avocado growth, leading to a drop in productivity - and ultimately less avocados on shelves.
According to a new report by Christian Aid, some of the best avocado growing regions are shrinking which is expected to result in a decline in avocado growth of 14%-41% by 2050.
The report explains: "Their need for water means they can suffer in regions that are receiving less rainfall because of climate change. They also have heat tolerance limits that may be challenged with the increasing numbers of heatwaves being seen around the world.
"Their growth and viability as a crop in the changing climate in the current major producing areas of Mexico, Spain, Chile, and Colombia is projected to shift.
"Overall areas deemed highly suitable for growing avocados are expected to decline by 14-41% globally by 2050, depending on the climate scenario, but moderately suitable second tier areas will grow by only 12-20%. The worse the climate scenario, the more rapidly prime avocado growing regions will shrink.
"Mexico, the world's biggest producer, could see its potential growing area reduced by 31% by 2050 even if global average temperature rise was limited to under 2C. If temperatures rise by 5C, growing areas could reduce by 43%, endangering the industry's sustainability and the livelihoods dependent on it."
Avocado farming puts a significant amount of pressure on water resources in dry regions, such as Mexico, and if conditions become drier due to climate change, this will have an adverse knock-on effect on avocado production.
But Zac Bard, Chairman of the World Avocado Organisation, a non-profit organisation that represents avocado growers across the globe, notes that the amount of water needed to grow avocados is much lower in wetter regions and is considerably less than the amount required to grow the likes of chocolate or coffee.
He said: "Avocados have, unfortunately, been subject to negative press regarding their environmental impact, including unfounded claims often fueled by unrepresentative or little evidence.
"To put things into perspective, one kilo of avocados needs an average of around 800 litres of water, but this can be much lower in wetter regions, where avocado trees can depend heavily on rainfall water. This is considerably less than what is needed for other household staples such as beef, coffee, and chocolate, which can be much greater."
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